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News: Why The Air Force Needs A Cheaper Reaper

Last week the Air Force released a request for information for a next-generation drone to聽replace the MQ-9 Reaper. The new unmanned aircraft, which should enter service in 2031, will have built-in AI to聽. However, the Air Force also wants a leap forward in another, more crucial area: cost. Because what they聽really聽need is a cheaper Reaper.

聽is the mainstay of the Air Force鈥檚 drone force. Launched from air bases close in the theater of operations, it can cruise for聽,听聽by relays of pilots. The Reaper carries a聽聽for a close-up view from 10,000 feet, and a mix of Hellfire missiles and laser- and GPS-guided bomb to attack targets. Iranian Quds Force General Soleimani was聽, showing they are employed against the very highest-value targets.

The problem is the price. In 2008 they聽聽apiece, but the Air Force鈥檚 latest budget figures shows each聽. That makes them even more expensive than the pricey, top-end聽聽attack helicopter. It is a lot for what is, at heart, supposed to be an expendable drone.

The Reaper or Predator-B, is an upgrade of the original聽聽which was retired聽聽by the USAF. This original Predator was designed in the 90鈥檚 as a low-cost sensor platforms, with a simple airframe and repurposed engine 鈥� the Rotax powering the Predator聽聽鈥� and cost around $4m each. This rose to about聽. At least five were lost in Balkans campaign in the 鈥�90s, either to mechanical failure or聽, but this was considered good value for the intelligence they gathered.

When pilot Scott O鈥橤rady was聽聽in 1995, a huge rescue mission was mounted with聽. When an unmanned Predator was lost, the Air Force simply bombed the wreckage to prevent the enemy gaining intelligence, and wheeled out the next replacement. It barely merited a paragraph in the newspapers. Their expendability, going places too risky for manned aircraft, made drones useful.

Things changed when the Predator was replaced by Predator B. The Reaper is twice as fast as the original and carries five times the payload, making it more like a traditional Air Force plane鈥�though it has less endurance than聽聽which was arguably the rationale for a drone loitering above enemy territory.

The price inflation from $4m to $7m to 14m to the current $32m is no great surprise. Increased performance always has a disproportionate effect on cost, and continual upgrades mean continual price hikes. Military aircraft are notorious for following聽. These are a set of semi-satirical observations formulated by a defense industry procurement executive in the 1980s that predict that by 2054 the Air Force and Navy will only be able to afford a single aircraft between them.

But that $32m price tag means that the Reaper could not be bought in large numbers. It also means the Reaper is not as expendable as the Predator, and losses cannot not be ignored.

For years Reapers operated with relative impunity over Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, but聽聽by Houthi rebels last year. Reapers operate at medium altitude; other planes stay safe by flying at extreme altitude like the聽, or by keeping down in the weeds. At medium altitude an aircraft is liable to be seen and shot at, and while Reaper operations generally avoid 鈥榙efended airspace,鈥� as events in Yemen show, some losses are to be expected.

General Atomics, maker of the Predator and Reaper, rolled out the聽, a sleek, stealthy version of the drone designed to cope with air defenses. However, the Avenger had reduced endurance and payload and likely increased cost, and the Air Force were clearly not convinced,听聽In 2012 the Air Force effectively聽聽for an MQ-9 Reaper replacement, known as MQ-X, in favor of Reaper upgrades. However, this February, the Air Force announced it was聽.

The Air Force鈥檚 new聽request for information聽aims to find out about potential replacements, to carry out the 鈥淗unter-Killer ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance] Mission鈥� at medium altitude. This specifies a need for a 鈥榬educed lifecycle cost鈥� and mentions the need for 鈥楢ttritable Technology鈥� 鈥� in other words, drones they can afford to lose.

Even before the new request, the Air Force was looking at low-cost commercial drones to fill the gap. Not everyone has the military鈥檚 millions for drone acquisition, and there are a variety of MALE (Medium Altitude, long Endurance) drones that might be adapted to their needs.

鈥淲e also see a lot of opportunity to bring in commercial technology, push the price point down, have systems that … we can take more loss with.” Dr. Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics,听.

They will be looking in particular at modern drones like聽TEROS聽made by NavMar. This is in the same weight class as the original Predator, with an endurance of 23 hours, and carries a 600-pound payload. It is designed for rapid servicing and autonomous flight operations with minimal ground crew. It exploits the use of a proven airframe and off-the-shelf commercial components rather than the custom-made electronics of military drones. TEROS successfully completed聽, and it builds on NavMar鈥檚 long experience with the smaller聽TigerShark drone聽supplied to the U.S. Navy (supplied at聽m each).

Drones like TEROS carry less than the Reaper鈥檚 3,800-pound payload, but it is doubtful whether the mission still needs that sort of weight. The聽聽developed for the Predator was an amazing feat of miniaturization in the late 鈥�90s, cramming a high-resolution ground surveillance radar聽into just 120 pounds. More recent developments have seen this type of synthetic aperture radar聽聽Similarly, the hefty, 100-pound聽聽missile is overkill, causing too much collateral damage for many missions, hence the development of a bizarre non-explosive聽聽with pop-out 鈥榮word blades鈥� for some targets. Something like the five-pound聽SwitchBlade precision munition, well proven in Afghanistan and elsewhere against vehicles and individuals, might be an effective lightweight alternative.

The Predator, originally little more than a powered glider with a camera, morphed into something closer to a standard Air Force plane in terms of performance and cost 鈥� making it hopeless for the mission it was supposed to perform. Perhaps, given a clean sheet, the Air Force will succeed in procuring a smarter, high-tech, low-cost, long-endurance drone it can buy in large numbers and afford to lose, a cheaper Reaper to get the job done.